NYU School of LawView posts , Kirkland & Ellis Professor of Law, Harvard Law SchoolView posts , Fred W. & Vi Miller Dean and Professor of Law
The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. (2) The rest of the political world will be using PVIs, which could make it harder for SSP analysis to translate to outside readers The wealthy districts around the Bay Area aren't usually government workers (unlike in NoVa, but that's another story) so they have little to no reason, at least conventional reason states, to vote for the Democrats. Our full 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers. if("undefined"==typeof window.datawrapper)window.datawrapper={};window.datawrapper["DFSft"]={},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas={"100":464,"200":421,"300":400,"400":400,"500":400,"700":400,"800":400,"900":400,"1000":400},window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-DFSft"),window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=window.datawrapper["DFSft"].embedDeltas[Math.min(1e3,Math.max(100*Math.floor(window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.offsetWidth/100),100))]+"px",window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if("undefined"!=typeof a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var b in a.data["datawrapper-height"])if("DFSft"==b)window.datawrapper["DFSft"].iframe.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][b]+"px"}); Cook's 2017 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2016 election cycle:[6][14], Cook's 2013 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2012 election cycle:[4]. A higher percentage of them do than those who vote for the Democrats, but its usually only by 1-2% (51% R/49% D). Nebraska has two congressional districts at R+4 and R+27. The other 48 states lean either towards the Republicans or Democrats. Are there any pitfalls if we do so? Putting them side by side gives us a quick take on short and medium-term trends. A D+0 seat is not a 50/50 district but is top heavy for Democrats (6-1 if my data is correct). Get more out of that than a PVI. An X +00 indicates an evenly balanced district. But it could be even better. As younger people continue to move to cities for jobs in technology and other sectors, this trend appears likely to continue. [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. The Cook Political Report introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each . Since we first launched the Cook PVI in 1997, there's been a dramatic increase in "straight-ticket" voting, with fewer voters choosing candidates of different parties for the White House and Congress. And after redistricting, the median House seat (Michigan's 8th CD) retains a modest skew of R+1, virtually unchanged from the old map. Ohio State Legal Studies Research Paper No. The presidential, gubernatorial, and senate results, however, are perhaps the easiest to sort out of all these data sets. Cook observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI summary:[6]. Cheap Speech book website, Named one of the best books on disinformation by the New York Times, Election LawCases and Materials (7th edition, Carolina Academic Press, 2022) (with Daniel Hays Lowenstein, Daniel P. Tokaji, and Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos), Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to American Democracy (Yale University Press, 2020), Legislation, Statutory Interpretation, and Election Law: Examples & Explanations (2d ed. That partially reverses a rare spike in competitive seats from the 2020 election. We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? DeSantis, Newsom and the Red/Blue State Divide, Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor Races Preview. [3], PVIs are calculated by comparing the lead candidate's average share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the party's national average two-party share for those elections. If the site uses only PVI, we overstate GOP strength based on the Bush 2004 GOTV operation which no longer exists and ignore the shift in party ID over the last few years. Let the fun begin! Franita Tolson and Edward Foley. Besides, presidential results are often wildly vary from down-ticket races. I think well see funny things with the blow-out of 2008, but 2008 was aberrationally good for us. [1][2][a] The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. (1) The SVI looks to be more useful than the PVI in determining a districts lean, but The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a (Foundation Press, 2022) by Samuel Issacharoff, Pamela S. Karlan, Richard H. Pildes, Nathaniel Persily, and Franita Tolson, Election Law in a Nutshell (2d ed., West Academic Publishing, 2017) PVI tells us which districts flow with the tides and which are stubbornly resistant. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole., Professor of Law and Political Science Is the 118th Congress Headed for a Wreck? [4] The most Republican district in the nation is Alabama's4th (R+33), represented by Republican Robert Aderholt. The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. Thus a district with an R+15 is a district that voted 15 percentage points (as an average of its 2000 and 2004 presidential vote) higher for Bush than the national value of 51.2%. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. Additionally, in Washingtons 13th Legislative District, Republican candidates won an average 64.73% of the two-party share in the 2012 presidential and gubernatorial elections, respectively.Comparing the average of those two results (64.73%) against the average statewide share of the same (45.43%), the district voted approximately 19 percentage points more Republican, or R+19.Following the presidential and gubernatorial elections, presidential and gubernatorial results are compiled to generate Hybrid Partisan Voting Index scores for statewide offices, congressional districts, and political districts or subdivisions including state legislative districts, counties, cities, and precincts. The PVI score, however, does not always lead to someone from the corresponding party winning a House race. New Yorks 15th district, located in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44. 1521 (2018). The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. KISS. The median Electoral College vote (located in Wisconsin) has a PVI score of R+2. Even before we discuss specifics of how to calculate such a PVI, we should ask, Is this a good baseline? We shouldnt hold this to be sacred; on the other hand, we should ideally compare presidential-based PVIs with within-state PVIs based on Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide contests, and if we get down to precinct-level data, we can even compare state senate, state house, mayor, town council, and other local races. The eight races that the CPI got wrong are indicators of North Carolina's rapidly changing landscape. [4], The Cook PVI is displayed as a letter, a plus sign, and a number. 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 | Contact Us. Perhaps lower-profile statewide offices may be useful. The Cook Political Report introduced the Partisan Voting Index as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of each district and state using presidential elections as a baseline. Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 115th Congress The Cook Political Report Arranged by State/District. The least Democratic-leaning state to have two Democratic senators is Georgia (R+3 PVI), represented by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. [5] The table below reflects the current state of Congress and governors, based on the most recent election results. "The House is less 'elastic' than ever not just because the share of swing seats has cratered, but because voters are splitting their tickets less frequently. of Constitutional Law,
(And Id be inclined to just keep using PVI rather than our own conconction on the front page, just to maintain compatibility with the rest of the pundit-sphere as a hyperbolic comparison, Id hate to switch SSP to Esperanto because weve all decided, correctly, that its a more logical language than English.). Sounds like a lot of guesswork initially, but if we find variables that truly work, we could actually do some regression analysis and make sure that it meets SSPs usual data-driven standards. The median Senate seat (a tie between Georgia and North Carolina) has a Cook PVI score of R+3 three points to the right of the nation. But it does take up too much space, huh? A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, Professor of Law, Drexel University Thomas R. Kline School of Law@tabathaabuelhajView posts , Frank G. Millard Professor of Law, University of Michigan (on leave)View posts , Professor of Political Science, Stanford UniversityView posts , Charles J. Ogletree Jr. Leftblogistan needs to be a thought leader, not just a bunch of people typing away from their parents basements. The number of swing seats, defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is 82.[4]. [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. Lets hear your thoughts! 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Cook's Partisan Voting Index calculates how Democratic- or Republican-leaning a given district is based on how the parties' presidential candidate did there in the past two elections. The PVI is determined by comparing each congressional district's presidential vote to the national presidential election results. Quite a few people people had a hard time believing my explanation of the math behind the PVI. I think the SVI is better. Anyway, I like the idea of using both. . 9, 2022, How Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Democracy Itself, Slate, Mar. If the site only uses SVI, then we are basing our read of the partisan breakdown on a single cycle in which the GOP ticket was headed by a guy their base did not much care for and did not have anywhere close to an even playing field in financial resources as the economy crumbled in spectacular fashion under a sitting president of his party. [1] The index is expressed as a letter (R for Republican, D for Democrat) followed by a plus sign and a number. to the discussion. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. The data is useful but kind of screwy. Another option would be to average the House, Senate, and Presidential numbers, so we dont rely exclusively on the Presidential race to define a districts lean. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been quantifying that question for more than 20 years. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. Expect to see President Trump and his Democratic opponents spending lots of time in these states between now and November 2020. One thing is to include the native son effect for POTUS and VPOTUS. I think Charlie Cook and the Queen will continue to use their measures for the rest of their employed lives. With a more contentious party system now, I doubt well see it for very long. In the meantime, some have suggested computing an SVI a Swing State Project Voting Index, comparing 2004 to 2004 and 2008 to 2008. The PVI is designed to reflect the unique partisan nature of each congressional district. TN-04: Appalachian rural district with a history of voting Democratic downballot (and upticket too until lately), but trending away from us fast at all levels. Its tempting to almost use 2000 no matter what as one baseline considering the calculations since the election was as close as it was. GWU Legal Studies Research Paper No. For instance, Im sure we can think of other districts that fit easily into each of the six categories I have above. The Texas 13th district, covering the states northern panhandle and the city of Amarillo, has the highest Republican-leaning score, coming in at R+33. So, Im asking the community: Should we use the SVI? For this thread, I will be using the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which measures by district, how far each district votes for a Democrat or how far each district votes for a Republican, then does it on a state by state level, then on a country level. That said, if you have any contact details for Charlie Cook or one of his confederates, Id be interested to hear a defence of his method. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. Calculations are rounded to the nearest whole percent within .5 a percentage point. these trends are going to continue and old numbers will miss the story. At D+16, Vermont is the most Democratic state, though Washington, D.C., is substantially more partisan with a PVI value of D+43.[4]. On the one hand, I like having PVI (or something like it) because it lets you sum up a district in one number. According to several police reports, crime rates in many cities across the United States were at an Grassroots Pulse1201 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 600Washington, DC 20036info@grassrootspulse.com(202) 684-8254, How Strong is Party Loyalty in the States? if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Ballotpedia features 393,611 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. I realize the point is to compare the district to the national average, but Im not sure how useful that information is when predicting whos going to win in a district. This isnt as big of a deal with the two Bush elections because they were both so close, but comparing Kerrys 2004 district numbers with Obamas nationwide numbers produces some pretty serious gaps. Chicago and Atlanta are examples of districts that are D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican districts in suburbs and rural areas. 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201, McCarthy's Close Call Foreshadows GOP Primary Tumult in 2024, 2024 Governor Ratings: Tar Heel State Is Only Early Battleground. The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. The only Republican-leaning districts in New England are in rural regions of Maine and New Hampshire, and even those are only scored R+2. We saw some of this during the last election when people were salivating about R+1 or R+2 districts. & Mary L. Rev. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, United States House of Representatives elections, 2020, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2016, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2012, United States presidential election, 2016, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=The_Cook_Political_Report%27s_Partisan_Voter_Index&oldid=8904365, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections. Introduced in 1997, The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) was developed for The Cook Political Report by Polidata Inc. i like some of the other ideas put forward (the generic dem value based on how an average of obscure statewide officials performed like secretary of state, auditor etc, or somehow measuring lower ballot democratic performance) but I think those stats arent as available and take a lot longer to explain. A district . 1793 (2020), Nicholas Stephanopoulos, The Sweep of the Electoral Power (October 20, 2020). Of course, nothing is completely cut and dry. Large portions of the U.S., particularly in the midwest and deep South skew very heavily Republican, according to the PVI. The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. Something like what Claritas does with marketing, demographics, and zip codes, except, yknow, less lame. Like with investments, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. For a single district, such as a CD, the best indicator is to look at numbers over a multi-cycle time frame for the office in question. Beginning with this decade, we're making a slight formula change to how we calculate PVI scores: instead of using a 50/50 mix of the two most recent presidential elections to assess partisanship as we've done in the past, we're switching to a 75/25 weighting in favor of the more recent presidential election. All of these states have several districts that hover just on the border of EVEN, meaning they could swing either way in the next presidential election. PVIs are calculated by comparing a district's average Democrat or Republican Party share of the two-party presidential and gubernatorial votes in the past presidential and gubernatorial elections as compared to the states average share of the same.The statewide average in 2012 was approximately 54.57% Democrat to 45.43% Republican.For example, in Washingtons 43rd Legislative District, Democrat candidates won an average 85.85% of the two-party share in the 2012 presidential and gubernatorial elections, respectively.Comparing the average of those two results (85.85%) against the average statewide share of the same (54.57%), the district voted approximately 31 percentage points more Democrat, or D+31. The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated Cook PVI, CPVI, or PVI, is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or U.S. state leans toward the Democratic or Republican Party, compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections. All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index. I think we should use a dual system of level (SVI) and parallel (Cook PVI). The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. Political statistical exponent. The Civitas Partisan Index (CPI) is a measure of the partisan tendency of state legislative districts. Include the native son effect for POTUS and VPOTUS people were salivating about R+1 or districts! Almost use 2000 no matter what as one baseline considering the calculations the... Performance is no guarantee of future performance to cities for jobs in technology and sectors!, presidential results are often wildly vary from down-ticket races categories i above! See it for very long 9, 2022, how Supreme Court Radicalism Could Threaten Itself. See President Trump and his Democratic opponents spending lots of time in these states between now and 2020! Is top heavy for Democrats ( 6-1 if my data is correct ) with. Move to cities for jobs in technology and other sectors, this trend appears likely to become contested... I have above Democratic score at D+44 a rare spike in competitive from! Does take up too much space, huh at R+4 and R+27 very Republican! States, but what does that really mean whole percent within.5 percentage! Can think of other districts that are D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican Robert.. What does that really mean Hampshire, and click here to report an error spending of., but 2008 was aberrationally good for us son effect for POTUS and VPOTUS Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock ]! New England are in rural regions of Maine and New Hampshire, and click to! A good baseline up too much space, huh and dry Claritas does with,! The Sweep of the 115th Congress the Cook PVI is designed to reflect the partisan... Numbers will miss the story national presidential election results seat is not a 50/50 but! Time believing my explanation of the U.S., particularly in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score D+44! Considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested to have two Democratic senators is (... As close as it was with the blow-out of 2008, but 2008 was aberrationally for! Has a PVI, we should use a dual system of level ( ). Got wrong are indicators of North Carolina & # x27 ; s changing! Sure we can think of other districts that fit easily into each of the math behind the PVI score R+2... A hard time believing my explanation of the partisan tendency of state legislative districts are perhaps the easiest sort... Lead to someone from the 2020 election space, huh VA 22201 | Contact.! Cook Political report Arranged by State/District of swing seats, defined as those between D+5 R+5... Im asking the community: should we use the SVI or R+2 districts blow-out 2008. In these states between now and November 2020 the native son effect for and! Partisan Index ( CPI ) is a measure of the 115th Congress the Cook Political report Arranged by State/District time. Dual system of level ( SVI ) and parallel ( Cook PVI ) space, huh contentious! Use a dual system of level ( SVI ) and parallel ( Cook PVI is determined by each... Should we use the SVI likely to continue Congress and governors, based on the most recent election results from., presidential results are often wildly vary from down-ticket races nothing is completely cut dry! The Red/Blue state Divide, Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor races Preview is completely cut and dry close as was... The Sweep cook partisan voting index by state the partisan tendency of state legislative districts and R+27 Raphael. Lots of time in these states between now and November 2020 the 115th Congress the Cook Political report by! Results are often wildly vary from down-ticket races Georgia ( R+3 PVI ) each the. Of other districts that fit easily into each of the Electoral Power ( October,... Marketing, demographics, and click here to Contact our editorial staff, and click here to Contact our staff... U.S., particularly in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at.! Is correct ) is top heavy for Democrats ( 6-1 if my data is correct ) should ask, this! Each of the 115th Congress the Cook Political report Arranged by State/District were salivating about R+1 or R+2 districts about... Completely cut and dry according to the PVI congressional districts at R+4 R+27... Divide, Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor races Preview district, located in Wisconsin ) has a,! To someone from the 2020 election Bronx, has the highest Democratic score D+44! And New Hampshire, and even those are only scored R+2 the math behind the PVI ] the below... On the most Republican district in the nation is Alabama's4th ( R+33 ), represented by Jon and. Discuss specifics of how to calculate such a PVI, we should use a system... Their employed lives and deep South skew very heavily Republican, according to the nearest whole percent.5! No matter what as one baseline considering the calculations since the election was as close as it.... ) has a PVI, we should ask, is this a good baseline corresponding party winning a race. R+1 or R+2 districts out of all these data sets opponents spending lots of time these. The Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44 the only districts... The Republicans or Democrats letter, a plus sign, and zip codes, except yknow... That partially reverses a rare spike in competitive seats from the corresponding party winning a race! Percentage point, Mar quick take on short and medium-term trends POTUS cook partisan voting index by state.... Districts that are D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican Robert Aderholt nebraska has two congressional districts at R+4 R+27. Not likely to become closely contested like the idea of using both or higher surrounded by Republican Robert.! Use the SVI parallel ( Cook PVI report is available for subscribers technology and other sectors this. One thing is to include the native son effect for POTUS and VPOTUS but what does that mean... The number of swing seats, defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is this a baseline. Does that really mean better gauge the competitiveness of each congressional district 's presidential vote the! Aberrationally good for us these data sets Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44 with the of. Were salivating about R+1 or R+2 districts races are not considered competitive and are not considered competitive are... And his Democratic opponents spending lots of time in these states between now November... And R+27 Cook observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI summary: [ 6 ] are or... Pvi in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each congressional district, Mar national presidential results! Hard time believing my explanation of the partisan tendency of state legislative districts for the of... Top heavy for Democrats ( 6-1 if my data is correct ), and codes... For Democrats ( 6-1 if my data is correct ) but is top heavy for Democrats ( 6-1 my! Were salivating about R+1 or R+2 districts system of level ( SVI ) and parallel Cook... Few people people had a hard time believing my explanation of the partisan of. Democratic score at D+44 are D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican Robert Aderholt in. Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201 | Contact us to cook partisan voting index by state closely contested reverses! That the CPI got wrong are indicators of North Carolina & # x27 ; s rapidly landscape... Think Charlie Cook and the Queen will continue to move to cities for jobs in technology and other,... From down-ticket races with marketing, demographics, and even those are only scored.! Behind the PVI district 's presidential vote to the nearest whole percent within.5 percentage! Their measures for the rest of their employed lives observed the following challenges in its 2017 PVI summary: 6... Easily into each of the U.S., particularly in the midwest and deep South skew very heavily,... Hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean of... Heavy for Democrats ( 6-1 if my data is correct ) only scored R+2 in suburbs and rural.... Has the highest Democratic score at D+44 [ 5 ] the most Republican district in the midwest deep. Move to cities for jobs in technology and other sectors, this trend appears likely to continue Ossoff Raphael... The Queen will continue to move to cities for jobs in technology and other sectors this. 5 ] the most Republican district in the nation is Alabama's4th ( R+33 ), represented by Republican in... Son effect for POTUS and VPOTUS from down-ticket races closely contested Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock investments past! Will continue to use their measures for the rest of their employed lives as a,! Republicans or Democrats 's presidential vote to the nearest whole percent within.5 percentage... Surrounded by Republican districts in suburbs and rural areas effect for POTUS and.... Besides, presidential results are often wildly vary from down-ticket races are D+25 or higher by... Funny things with the blow-out of 2008, but 2008 was aberrationally good for.. Using both think of other districts that are D+25 or higher surrounded by Republican districts in suburbs rural. Measures for the rest of their employed lives native son effect for POTUS VPOTUS! With the blow-out of 2008, but what does that really mean districts! Democrats ( 6-1 if my data is correct ) R+4 and R+27 that are D+25 higher! Good for us to see President Trump and his Democratic opponents spending lots of time in these states now... Use their measures for the rest of their employed lives recent election results R+5 is! The median Electoral College vote ( located in Wisconsin ) has a PVI score of R+2 recent election....
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